Orlando Real Estate News

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - Sept. 10, 2009 - In the past month, the tropics have exploded with activity, including four tropical storms and two major hurricanes named Bill and Fred.

Yet this storm season already is shaping up to be slower than normal, and El Nino, the atmospheric condition known to suppress storms, is largely to thank, forecasters say.

"El Nino is now affecting the upper-level circulation throughout the global tropics," said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Created by abnormally warm waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, El Nino generates strong wind shear over the Atlantic basin.

So far this season, that wind shear has subdued Tropical Storms Ana, Danny and Erika. It also has attacked several tropical waves, preventing them from developing. That was evident during the first 10 weeks of the season, when it was eerily quiet.

By the peak of the season on Thursday, three hurricanes normally would have formed. Yet only two have emerged so far. Last year, through Sept. 10, five hurricanes had developed; in hyperactive 2005, seven hurricanes had sprung up.

Bell noted that even in El Nino years, storms can grow to devastating power and strike the U.S. coast. The most glaring example: Hurricane Andrew clobbered Miami-Dade County as a Category 5 system in August 1992.

This year, Hurricane Bill defied El Nino and burgeoned to 135 miles per hour while it was in the western Atlantic last month. Hurricane Fred was in the far eastern Atlantic on Wednesday, packing winds of 120 mph. It was forecast to move north into cooler waters and die. "Hurricanes can and do strike during El Nino, and we are now in the peak of the hurricane season," Bell noted.


NOAA called for seven to 11 named storms, including three to six hurricanes. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University predicted 10 named storms, including four hurricanes. A normal season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes.


Another factor that can suppress storms is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Bell said. That's an atmospheric condition that creates fluctuations in tropical rainfall affecting the entire Atlantic basin.

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation helped to suppress activity in late July and early August, and has since helped to enhance the activity in the last few weeks," he said.

While the hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, Klotzbach said El Nino might shut down the tropics sooner than that.

That is because most October storms form in the Caribbean, he said, and "vertical wind shear in El Nino years tends to be higher, especially in the Caribbean."

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